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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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