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The most severe potential impacts of the climate emergency for the UK have been outlined by experts, encompassing a scorching 4C rise in temperatures to a 2-metre increase in ocean levels. A separate possibility predicts a plunge of 6C in temperatures following the collapse of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset agriculture and energy needs.

Credible Outcomes, Not Guarantees

These consequences, some of which are connected to irreversible climate shifts, are seen as improbable but possible. The researchers stated that these projections filled a gap in forecasting that had left the UK not ready for catastrophic possibilities.

"The climate extremes we have mapped are not forecasts, but they are plausible," said the professor who directed the analysis. "Britain has been formulating policy lacking the frameworks to test against extreme possibilities. We've now provided planners what they need to prepare for environmental results they wish to avoid, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Harsh Climate Projections

Another collection of dire projections sets out the possible scale of harsh climate between now and the year 2100. These indicate that thermometer readings could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C higher than average, while rainfall could be triple normal levels.

The probability of the worst-case outcomes happening remains uncertain due to uncertainty about what measures will be implemented to tackle global heating and how the planet's climate will behave. This analysis was described as similar to national security risk assessments or scenario planning for financial systems.

Critical Possibility Details

• 4C Temperature Rise: Worldwide averages soaring past 4C by 2100 could happen if emissions cuts breaks down or if vicious cycles like the Amazon basin becoming a net carbon source emit its vast reserves of carbon. This would lead to intense and enduring heatwaves and droughts affecting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A critical sea current, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is losing strength and becoming unstable due to ocean warming. A collapse starting around 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be completely altered," noted the lead researcher.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if ice sheets in the polar regions collapse rapidly, submerging coastal cities and towns. Differing from the other scenarios, this risk is already recognized by coastal engineers.
• Pollution Paradox: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is sharply cut. This paradoxical outcome occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion reflect sunlight from reaching the ground.

Preparing for the Worst

The worst-case scenarios could be used to inform the building of critical national infrastructure, such as new towns, nuclear power stations and water management networks. Understanding these future hazards could also accelerate the drive to reduce fossil fuel emissions.

The research developed the worst-case scenarios using a blend of observed and historical experience, digital projections and scientific theory. The possibilities exclude broader worldwide issues like the devastation of food supplies and resource wars.

This work was initiated as part of a national risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have warned that too little consideration was being given to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

Official experts has recommended that the UK must "become resilient to moderate heating" and assess the risks for 4C. Previous adaptation plans have been labeled being "inadequate" by some observers.

An official statement said: "Global warming is at the center of our national priorities, both building resilience and transitioning to a clean energy superpower. It is crucial that the UK is ready for the consequences."