Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.