How Donald Trump Secured a Gaza Strip Breakthrough Which Escaped Joe Biden
At first, the Israeli aerial attack on the Hamas militant negotiating team in Doha appeared like another escalation that pushed the hope of a ceasefire further away.
This strike on 9 September breached the sovereignty of an American ally and risked expanding the conflict into a region-wide war.
Negotiations appeared to be in ruins.
However, it proved to be a pivotal event that culminated in a agreement, declared by President Donald Trump, to free all captives still held.
That represents a objective that Trump, and President Joe Biden previously, had sought for almost 24 months.
It is just the first step towards a lasting resolution, and the specifics of disarming Hamas, Gaza governance and complete Israeli pullout remain to be negotiated.
But if this deal stands, it could be Trump's defining accomplishment of his second term - one that eluded Biden and his administration.
Trump's unique style and key alliances with the Israeli government and the Arab world seem to have played a role in this breakthrough.
However, as with many diplomatic achievements, there were also elements involved beyond the influence of both leaders.
Strong Ties Which Biden Never Had
In public, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
The president often states that the nation has no better friend, and the Israeli leader has described Trump as Israel's "most supportive friend in the US presidency". And these positive statements have been matched by actions.
During his first presidential term, Trump relocated the American diplomatic mission in the country from its former location to Jerusalem and discarded a long-held US position that Israeli settlements in the Palestinian West Bank are illegal, the view under global norms.
When Israel began its air strikes against Iran in June, the US leader directed American aircraft to target the nation's nuclear enrichment facilities with its largest non-nuclear weapons.
These public demonstrations of backing may have allowed the president the leeway to exert more influence on Israel behind the scenes. According to reports, Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, browbeat the prime minister in the latter part of the year into agreeing to a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of some hostages.
After Israeli forces launched strikes against Syria's military in the summer, including hitting a Christian church, the US president urged his counterpart to change course.
The leader exhibited a level of will and pressure on an Israeli prime minister that is rarely seen, says an analyst of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "There is no example of an US leader directly instructing an Israeli leader that you're going to have to comply or else."
Biden's connection with the Israeli administration was always more tenuous.
His administration's "close embrace strategy" argued that the United States had to embrace Israel openly in order to enable it to influence the country's war conduct behind closed doors.
Underneath this was Biden's nearly half-century of support for Israel, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Each move Biden took endangered dividing his own domestic support, while his successor's solid Republican base gave him more room to manoeuvre.
In the end, domestic politics or individual ties may have had less importance than the simple fact that, throughout Biden's presidency, Israel was unwilling to make peace.
Eight months into his new administration, with the Islamic Republic weakened, the militant group to its immediate north significantly reduced and Gaza devastated, every one of its key military goals had been achieved.
Business History Helped Secure Gulf's Backing
An Israeli strike in the Qatari capital, which resulted in the death of a Qatari citizen but not the intended targets, led Trump to deliver an ultimatum to the prime minister. The war had to end.
The US leader had allowed Israel a relatively free hand in the territory. The president lent American military might to Israel's campaign in the neighboring country. But an strike on Qatari territory was a different matter completely, pushing him closer to the Arab position on how best to end the war.
Several administration figures have told the press that this was a decisive moment which galvanised the president to exert full force to get a peace deal done.
The leader's strong connections with the Gulf states are well documented. He has commercial interests with Qatar and the UAE. The president began both his presidential terms with official trips to the kingdom. This year, Trump also visited in Qatar and the UAE capital.
His Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between the Jewish state and several Muslim states, such as the Emirates, was the biggest foreign policy success of his initial presidency.
His visits he spent in the capitals of the Gulf region earlier this year contributed to shift his perspective, says Ed Husain of the Council on Foreign Relations. The US president did not travel to Israel on this Middle East trip but visited the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar where the leader heard repeated calls to put a stop to the conflict.
Less than a month after that Israeli strike on the city, the president sat nearby as the prime minister himself phoned Qatar to apologise. And later that day, the Israeli leader gave approval on the president's comprehensive proposal for Gaza - one that also had the backing of key Muslim nations in the area.
If Trump's alliance with his counterpart gave him the room to influence Israel to reach an agreement, his past with Muslim leaders may have secured their backing, and assisted them persuade Hamas to commit to the deal.
"A key factor that clearly happened was that the US leader developed influence with the Israeli government, and through intermediaries with Hamas," notes an analyst of the a research center.
"That made a difference. The capacity to achieve this on his timing, and avoid yielding to the desires of the combatants has been a problem that many earlier administrations have faced, and he seems to handle with some success."
The reality that the president is far better liked in Israel than the prime minister personally was leverage that he used to his advantage, the expert continues.
Now Israel has agreed to releasing more than 1,000 detainees held in its jails and has agreed to a limited pullback from the strip.
Hamas will release all the captives still held, both alive and deceased, captured in the initial October 7 assault, which resulted in the loss of over 1,200 Israelis.
An end to the conflict, which has resulted in the destruction of the territory and the fatalities of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal