Everyday Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Statistics

The average figure of daily homicides each month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent official data. However, public safety specialists have cautioned that murder numbers could fail to indicate improved countrywide safety.

Marked Reduction in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in the previous September. This information was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen during these months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that the previous month the least amount of murders were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate escalate in the past few years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over 4x higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety experts cautioned that using murder data to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is particularly true considering the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to properly identify and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it could mask periods when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for major crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

However despite these measures, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to express their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, socially it’s highly problematic,” Vargas said.