A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
